Does economic integration enhance development in poor countries?

It is commonly suggested that integration is good for poverty by increasing trade and investment and creating jobs. The number of regional trade agreements has grown quickly in recent years, and this may have been partly spurred by the EU, which is deemed to be a successful model of economic and social integration.

There is little research on the effect of regional integration on development and poverty in poor countries. A study by the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) attempts to fill this void by looking at the scope and effects of different types of regional integration. This research sought to look at how integration affects poverty in poor countries by analysing (1) the current research literature, (2) the effects of regional integration on Foreign Direct Investment in developing countries (FDI), and (3) how regional integration specifically effects poverty in Bolivia and Tanzania.

Researchers found that integration does raise FDI, but the benefits were found to be spread unequally with the larger countries capturing the majority of the direct benefits. In Tanzania and Bolivia it was found that capacity constraints  limited the ability of these countries to benefit fully from new trade and investment. There is also the risk that by focussing on regional integration processes the incentive for countries to engage in multilateral engagement, or simply working in concert, is removed. This is important because it is possible that for some countries multilateral alignments provide more potential for development than regional integration.

Nevertheless, regional groupings provide a firm focus to problems affecting their specific region. This can play an import role in providing appropriate regional public goods and appropriate adjustment towards the liberalisation of sensitive market and service sectors.

It is likely that the current financial crisis is going to impact upon different regions around the world in different ways. It has been argued that the crisis is likely to hasten the structural shift in global economic power from the Western countries to the emerging economies, and as a result regional understandings and the processes that form regional integration strategies will change.

In January the 11^th Annual Global Development Conference will take place in Prague. This is organised by the Global Development Network (GDN) and will look critically at regional integration in the light of the financial crisis. Three key questions the conference hope to address include:

1. Will political pressures to push back globalization now come from the West?
2. If so, how can developing countries counter it?
3. Is a new variant of globalization likely to emerge from this crisis, and if so, what will its contours be?

The full ODI research report can be found on R4D through the following link: Regional Integration and Poverty

HIV prevention for the young

DFID funded research by MEMA kwa Vijana: Good things for young people has brought new evidence to thinking on how to prevent HIV in young people in Tanzania. The research took place through a series of adolescent sexual and reproductive health trials focused on developing skills and changing the attitudes of young people. The programme employed a participatory approach through interventions in schools, health services and the broader community.

45% of HIV transmission worldwide takes place among people aged 15-24 years. This means that if the spread of the epidemic is going to be halted and reversed young people must be targeted. Unfortunately, many young people do not have access to the knowledge and skills to reduce their vulnerability. This is particularly prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa.

Numerous different approaches to preventing HIV in young people are in use through various prevention programmes. These  include: behaviour change interventions, biomedical interventions and social interventions. The most common of these are behavioural interventions through sexual health and drug related education. This education is provided in-schools, and through the social marketing of condom use.

The research found that behaviour interventions had a positive effect on young people’s knowledge, but did not change behaviour or reduce HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. These findings suggest that carefully designed interventions delivered through schools or community peer-educators on their own do not have the desired impact. This may be explained through deep lying social norms in behaviour or in the nature of the intervention itself.

Population norms are seen as a great barrier to successful prevention among the young. Preventative methods are unlikely to be successful if they go against behavioural norms within a community. However, many studies have shown that self-reported studies are not always reliable among this age group. There is a tendency for young people to report what they believe is socially acceptable rather than what is true. This has resulted in calls for more studies to combine behaviour change interventions with the mapping of biological outcomes. Studies of this nature have mainly taken place in high-income countries, but have also shown mixed results.

The reality is that attitudes can be very hard to change. Increasing young people’s knowledge about adolescent sexual and reproductive health is not enough to bring significant results. Nevertheless, it is undoubtedly a good starting point from which to develop intervention practices. It is also clear that the real impact of behavioural and educational interventions might be hidden through the ‘socially desirable answers’ given by young people in this type of study.

Read more about MEMA kwa Vijana: Good things for young people on R4D or on the programmes own website through the following link: http://www.memakwavijana.org/

Climate Change alters the course of Malaria in East Africa

According to a DFID funded report by the Climate Change Adaptation in Africa (CCAA) research and capacity development programme, East Africa is experiencing outbreaks of malaria in highland areas where there is little history of the disease. Research led by the Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) is combining climate observation with medical research in an attempt to predict when highland malaria outbreaks will take place in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.

Highland temperatures have been rising in recent decades, with recent temperatures as much as four degrees higher than usual. As a result the incidence of malaria in Kenya’s highlands increased by 300% over the baseline average for 1995-2002. Meanwhile in Uganda and Tanzania, malaria incidence in highland areas increased by 256% and 146% over the same baseline period. Malaria in now considered endemic in some highland areas.

By 2001 KEMRI had developed a malaria epidemic prediction model that can detect an epidemic up to four months before it occurs. But the challenge remains to develop and deploy an instrument that can be used by health workers to predict when a potential epidemic may strike. Improved malaria prediction is seen as an essential part of Africa’s adaptation to climate change, and one that requires immediate attention.

Dr Margaret Chan of the World Health Organisation (WHO) identified climate change as potentially “the most ominous struggle” facing human health in coming years.

Each year malaria directly affects 500 million people worldwide; most of these people are in Africa where one in five childhood deaths are caused by the disease. The likelihood that climate change is altering its patterns means that a tool that predicts when an outbreak may strike could prove invaluable.

The project record is available on R4D here.